{"meta":{"generated_at":"2026-09-13T13:34:07.011Z","note":"Public, sanitized projection of the live OSINT prediction journal. Confirmed/closed calls only — forward predictions and engine internals are not exposed.","total_observations":841},"scorecard":{"confirmed":388,"not_confirmed":149,"opacity_unverifiable":145,"pending":159,"missed_total":15,"precision":0.723,"precision_ci95":[0.683,0.759],"avg_lead_days":13.5,"avg_lead_days_ci95":[12.9,14.1],"sample_caveat":"Sample large enough for cautious weight calibration.","calibration":{"brier":0.196,"spread":0.182,"reliability":[{"tier":"watch","label":"Watch","confidence":0.758,"confirm_rate":0.758,"ci":[0.698,0.809],"n":223},{"tier":"elevated_watch","label":"Elevated","confidence":0.644,"confirm_rate":0.644,"ci":[0.579,0.704],"n":222},{"tier":"covert_elevated","label":"Covert-elevated","confidence":0.826,"confirm_rate":0.826,"ci":[0.736,0.89],"n":92}],"note":"Self-calibrated: each tier’s stated confidence is its own historical confirm-rate, so what we claim matches what happens. Brier (0 = perfect) measures discrimination; spread = gap between best and worst tier — low spread means the tiers barely separate outcomes, the real thing to improve."}},"confirmed_calls":[{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-28","lead_days":31,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-13","lead_days":31,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"NG","country":"Nigeria","predicted":"2026-07-12","lead_days":31,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-07-07","lead_days":31,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-03","lead_days":31,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-29","lead_days":30,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"TD","country":"Chad","predicted":"2026-07-12","lead_days":30,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-07-08","lead_days":30,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-06-05","lead_days":30,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-05-30","lead_days":30,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"SO","country":"Somalia","predicted":"2026-08-13","lead_days":29,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-30","lead_days":29,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-07-09","lead_days":29,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-08","lead_days":29,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"YE","country":"Yemen","predicted":"2026-07-04","lead_days":29,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-05-31","lead_days":29,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-31","lead_days":28,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"TD","country":"Chad","predicted":"2026-07-14","lead_days":28,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CD","country":"DR Congo","predicted":"2026-07-13","lead_days":28,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"AF","country":"Afghanistan","predicted":"2026-07-10","lead_days":28,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-06-01","lead_days":28,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-08-01","lead_days":27,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-06","lead_days":27,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-06-15","lead_days":27,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"PK","country":"Pakistan","predicted":"2026-06-03","lead_days":27,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-08-02","lead_days":26,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"PK","country":"Pakistan","predicted":"2026-06-04","lead_days":26,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"AF","country":"Afghanistan","predicted":"2026-06-04","lead_days":26,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-06-03","lead_days":26,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"NG","country":"Nigeria","predicted":"2026-07-09","lead_days":25,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-06-12","lead_days":25,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"PK","country":"Pakistan","predicted":"2026-06-05","lead_days":25,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"AF","country":"Afghanistan","predicted":"2026-06-05","lead_days":25,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-06-04","lead_days":25,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-05-30","lead_days":25,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-19","lead_days":24,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-13","lead_days":24,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-08-02","lead_days":24,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-09","lead_days":24,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-06-13","lead_days":24,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"PK","country":"Pakistan","predicted":"2026-06-06","lead_days":24,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-05-31","lead_days":24,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-20","lead_days":23,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-14","lead_days":23,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-08-09","lead_days":23,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"AF","country":"Afghanistan","predicted":"2026-07-15","lead_days":23,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"NG","country":"Nigeria","predicted":"2026-07-11","lead_days":23,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-11","lead_days":23,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-10","lead_days":23,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"PK","country":"Pakistan","predicted":"2026-06-07","lead_days":23,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-21","lead_days":22,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-08-10","lead_days":22,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-08-06","lead_days":22,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-12","lead_days":22,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-11","lead_days":22,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"PK","country":"Pakistan","predicted":"2026-06-08","lead_days":22,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-22","lead_days":21,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-08-07","lead_days":21,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"AF","country":"Afghanistan","predicted":"2026-07-17","lead_days":21,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-13","lead_days":21,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-07-12","lead_days":21,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-06-16","lead_days":21,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-06-02","lead_days":21,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-23","lead_days":20,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-08-17","lead_days":20,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-08-06","lead_days":20,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-14","lead_days":20,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"SO","country":"Somalia","predicted":"2026-06-25","lead_days":20,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-06-22","lead_days":20,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"NG","country":"Nigeria","predicted":"2026-05-21","lead_days":20,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"MM","country":"Myanmar","predicted":"2026-08-13","lead_days":19,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"IR","country":"Iran","predicted":"2026-08-13","lead_days":19,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-08-07","lead_days":19,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-07-30","lead_days":19,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"CU","country":"Cuba","predicted":"2026-07-15","lead_days":19,"tier":"Elevated"},{"iso2":"YE","country":"Yemen","predicted":"2026-07-14","lead_days":19,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-07-14","lead_days":19,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"ET","country":"Ethiopia","predicted":"2026-07-14","lead_days":19,"tier":"Watch"},{"iso2":"SD","country":"Sudan","predicted":"2026-06-18","lead_days":19,"tier":"Covert-elevated"},{"iso2":"NG","country":"Nigeria","predicted":"2026-05-22","lead_days":19,"tier":"Watch"}]}