{"meta":{"generated_at":"2026-09-13T05:55:45.416221+00:00","method":"Prediction Outcome Objects: every mature Prediction Object verified mechanically against risk_history.json (the record it referenced). Calibration bins answer the only question that builds statistical reputation: when we say 70%, how often does it happen? Statistics are cumulative and append-only; recent outcomes shown, none re-graded. Core frozen at v1.0 — this file measures, never tunes.","benchmark_note":"A Brier score on its own means nothing: 0.13 looks good beside a coin toss and can still be worse than simply predicting each country's own historical frequency. brier_climatology is that baseline, computed only from days before each prediction was made, and skill_score says whether the engine beats it. Negative skill means it does not. The false-alert rate is shown beside the rate expected from the base rates of the countries the alerts sit on.","event_note":"The graded event is a day when OUR composite index for the country crosses the elevated line, as recorded in risk_history.json. It is a property of our own measurement, not a certified fact about the country.","resolved":0,"unverifiable":0,"partial":0,"verifiability":"A window is graded only when all 14 days are present: a missing day can hide a hit but never invent one, so gapped windows would quietly turn true positives into misses. Windows with 11 to 13 days are kept as 'partial' and excluded from the score.","brier_overall":null,"brier_climatology":null,"skill_score":null,"horizon_7d":{"n":0,"brier":null,"brier_climatology":null,"skill_score":null,"note":"Skill decays with horizon. A replay out of sample on 2026-09-13 gave +67% at one day, +41% at three, +15% at seven and -1% at fourteen with an interval straddling zero. Both horizons are graded on the same days so the decay is visible rather than argued."},"false_alert_rate":null,"false_alert_rate_expected":null,"agg":{"bins":[{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0},{"n":0,"hits":0}],"brier_sum":0.0,"brier_n":0,"alerts":0,"false_alerts":0,"unverifiable":0,"graded_through":"2026-08-29"}},"calibration":[{"range":"0-10%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"10-20%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"20-30%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"30-40%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"40-50%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"50-60%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"60-70%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"70-80%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"80-90%","n":0,"observed_rate":null},{"range":"90-100%","n":0,"observed_rate":null}],"outcomes":[]}