Public track record · Updated daily

Every call, dated.
Grade it yourself.

Most risk vendors assert their accuracy. We publish ours, with timestamps, and leave it open to inspection. Below are early-warning calls verified against official sources — and the live detection log the engine writes as it runs. No precision figure to take on trust. Check the dates against when the headlines actually broke.

Scorecard · live from the journal

The confusion matrix, in the open

Closed-loop counts straight from the server-authored prediction journal — including the calls that did not confirm and the escalations we stayed silent on. The honest denominator, not a cherry-picked numerator.

—
Confirmed early
—
Avg lead (days)
—
In flight
—
Did not confirm
—
Misses tracked
—
Precision (scored)
Loading live scorecard from the journal…
Confirmed early calls

Flagged before mainstream coverage

Each call was written to the record at the time it was made, then closed-loop verified against official humanitarian and health sources. Lead time = days between our flag and broad mainstream coverage. Neutral framing only — we report escalation signals, never attribution or conflict-side commentary.

Nigeria
Escalation signal
+20 days
earlier than mainstream coverage
Verified against
ReliefWeb · UN OCHA · WHO
Myanmar
Escalation signal
+16 days
earlier than mainstream coverage
Verified against
ReliefWeb · UN OCHA · WHO
Sudan
Escalation signal
+13 days
earlier than mainstream coverage
Verified against
ReliefWeb · UN OCHA · WHO
Live detection log

What the engine is tracking right now

Detection lead-time — how long and how broadly the engine has tracked each signal. This is raw monitoring data, not a claim of confirmed outcome. Pulled live from the public feed.
SignalLocationTracking sinceDaysSourcesLevel
Loading live detection log…

How to read this

  • Dated at issue time. Calls are written to the record when made — not backfilled. The value is the gap between our flag and the headlines.
  • Verified against official sources. Confirmation comes from ReliefWeb, UN OCHA, WHO and equivalents — not our own say-so.
  • Small early sample — and we track our misses too. This is an early record still calibrating. Lead time on past calls is not a guarantee of future ones.
  • Lead time, not a verdict. An early signal buys your team time to look — it does not replace your own judgement or on-the-ground sources.
  • Aggregator, not media. Vigilo aggregates and attributes open sources; it does not write editorial and is not a news outlet.