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Global Risk Brief

The world's highest-risk countries, week of 23 May 2026

Vigilo scored 115 countries across seven risk domains this week. Conflict dominates the top of the table — Myanmar, the Palestinian Territories, Yemen and Iran lead — while Bangladesh, Sudan and DR Congo round out the elevated tier. Every score below is traceable to its source feeds.

Live engine Published 23 May 2026 44 verified feeds · 7 domains By Vigilo Intelligence

This week's top hotspots

The composite risk score (0–5) blends signal density, severity and structural fragility across all seven domains. Higher means more corroborated, more severe, or more sustained. These are the eight countries scoring 1.9 and above.

#CountryCompositeBandLead domain
1Myanmar3.5SevereConflict · 11 events
2Palestinian Territories3.3ElevatedConflict · 46 events
3Yemen2.9ElevatedConflict · 7 events
4Iran2.7ElevatedConflict · 16 events
5Bangladesh2.3ModerateBorder · 3 events
6Sudan2.2ModerateConflict · 2 events
7DR Congo2.1ModerateConflict · 4 events
8Ukraine1.9ModerateConflict · 26 events
How to read this. A high score is not a prediction of catastrophe — it's a measure of how much corroborated risk signal a country is generating right now, relative to its structural ability to absorb shocks. A quiet week can still carry a moderate score where fragility is high; a noisy week can spike a score that fades within days.

What's driving the top of the table

Myanmar — severe (3.5)

Myanmar holds the only severe composite this week, driven entirely by the conflict domain across 11 distinct tracked events. The country's structural fragility — high hazard exposure with weak coping capacity — amplifies every incremental signal, which is why a sustained insurgency keeps it at the top even in a week without a single dominant headline.

Palestinian Territories — elevated (3.3)

The highest event volume of any country this week (46 tracked items in the conflict domain). High signal density with persistent severity keeps the territory in the elevated band. Vigilo reports the measured signal only; the figure reflects corroborated reporting density across feeds, not an editorial position.

Yemen, Iran — elevated (2.9, 2.7)

Both sit in the elevated band on the conflict domain. Iran's score is supported by the broadest source spread of the two (16 events), suggesting wide corroboration rather than a single spike. Yemen's smaller event count at a higher fragility baseline produces a comparable composite — a useful illustration of why raw event counts and composite scores diverge.

Bangladesh, Sudan, DR Congo — moderate (2.1–2.3)

Bangladesh is the table's outlier: its lead domain is border, not conflict, reflecting cross-border movement and frontier pressure rather than internal violence. Sudan stays conflict-led at 2.2 with a parallel cholera climate-lead health signal and an active WFP food-insecurity alert — a textbook compound risk where conflict, climate and public health reinforce one another. DR Congo tracks similarly at 2.1.

How Vigilo scores risk

Every composite is built from public, verifiable feeds and is traceable back to its sources — no black box, no single-source claims.

115
countries scored
316
active events
7
risk domains
44
verified feeds

Domains: health, conflict, civil unrest, climate, infrastructure, transport, border. Sources include WHO, ECDC, CDC, GDACS, GDELT, IODA and 38 more — refreshed continuously. Read the full methodology →

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Vigilo aggregates publicly available reporting and structural indicators into transparent, source-traceable risk scores. Scores describe measured signal density and structural fragility — they are decision-support, not guarantees, and should not be the sole basis for safety, travel or operational decisions. Country labels follow source-feed conventions and imply no political position. Figures reflect the data snapshot of 23 May 2026 and change as feeds update.